Around 7,300 automated micro-fulfilment centres (MFCs) will be installed by the end of 2030 according to new research from Interact Analysis. This is up from just 86 at the end of 2021. The predicted growth is mainly driven by demand for same-day grocery delivery. 

In the near future, much of the growth in the automated MFC market will come from the large incumbent grocery retailers, such as Walmart and Tesco, as they strive to offer same-day delivery services. Conversely, demand from non-grocery retailers is far smaller due to a slower uptake of same-day deliveries. The research defines automated MFCs as fulfilment centres smaller than 50,000 ft², or as automation installed in the back of a store. And it splits potential customers into two categories: grocery (where more than 50% of revenues is from grocery), and non-grocery retailers.

Additionally, the rapid-delivery companies have so far been slow in deploying automated MFCs because they’ve been focusing on network expansion and customer acquisition, rather than driving operational efficiency through automation. However, the rapid delivery market will likely undergo a period of consolidation in the coming years which will lead to a strong focus on profitability per delivery site – and investment in automation.

Rueben Scriven, Senior Analyst at Interact Analysis, says: “There’s no doubt that the growth in the automated MFC market has been slower than expected. This is partly driven by supply-chain constraints and permitting delays, although Instacart’s white-label services are also calling into question the need for in-house fulfillment assets for some grocers. However, while incumbent grocers have been slower to adopt automated MFCs, the phenomenal growth of rapid delivery companies and the Q-commerce market has significantly increased the addressable market, driving future growth.”