Forty-seven years of EU Membership will come to an end for the UK this Friday (31st January) at 23:00hrs.
So, after the to-ing and fro-ing of the last three years and seven months, is the UK finally out of the EU? Not quite.
On Friday, assuming there are no further unexpected changes, the Article 50 process will be over and non-reversible. The 31st January is the point of no return to the EU. In that sense, Brexit will be "done", but there will be little practical impact due to the transition period beginning immediately.
Many of our members won’t notice a difference come Saturday 1st February. The 11 month transition period means staying in the EU single market, its customs union and paying into its budget. British citizens will be able to live, work, study and retire to the EU, while EU27 nationals enjoy those reciprocal rights in the UK.
Life will carry on as normal, however, the only thing that will change is the fact that we will no longer be EU citizens. But, for Government, UK will no longer have a say in EU affairs. We will for the transition period be required to conform to EU standards, rules and law, including rulings by the European Court of Human Rights with no ability to contribute to amendments – and we will continue to pay our contribution to the EU budget in full.
The transition period’s purpose is to provide breathing space in which the long-term relationship, including a trade deal, can be negotiated. The trading relationship between the EU and UK will remain unchanged during this period. However, it will only last until the end of 2020.
June is the final month for Britain to request an extension of its transition period beyond 2020, and despite the EU raising the potential for a further two year extension, the Prime Minister has promised that it will not be extended past December 2020.
CILT believes that with just 11 months to negotiate and conclude any trade deal, the chances are that we may only be left with a bare bones trade deal – particularly as the EU’s opening negotiating position includes their insistence that any UK deals are to be scrutinised by the EU Commission and courts for equivalence – a position that remains fundamentally unacceptable to the UK. If that is the case, then, at the end of 2020, there will be a lot of unfinished business and differing aspirations for the trade talks have raised the prospect of a new no-deal scenario at the end of this year.
Our clarion call to government over the last three years has been the fundamental need for frictionless borders, the continued flow of goods and access to EU labour. We will continue to work with government to advise, guide and offer practical solutions to the professions.
A “complete” Brexit still remains quite a way away. If a Free Trade Agreement cannot be agreed the possibility of a no-deal Brexit remains. CILT is encouraging its members to remain focussed and continue to prepare for all eventualities.
CILT recommends that its members must continue to prepare to undertake customs work for all shipments to and from the EU. This includes understanding the different procedures and the tremendous opportunities they offer to reduce costs and in some cases bureaucracy.
The Institute will be reporting regularly on the progress of Brexit and its communications with government through the Weekly News Bulletin and Focus magazine, during this vital period for UK supply chains.