The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (CILT) welcomes the announcement that the government will ban the sale of petrol and diesel cars and vans from 2030, and hybrid vehicles from 2035.
The Institute believes that this announcement provides clarity on the Road to Zero and responds to the pressing need to reduce transport emissions. The timing is just sufficient for model replacement cycles and for the cost of battery technology to fall based on both developments and economies of scale.
Our first note of caution, however, is that consumer and business anticipation of the change is likely to distort the vehicle market; the average age of the parc is likely to extend with a negative impact on the supply industry and emissions in the short term.
CILT also believes that this measure will not address the problems of congestion and a significant proportion of particulate emissions from tyres and brakes.
The investment required in grid capacity and charging points will also need to be integrated within the government’s timescale. This is likely to be a more difficult challenge than replacing the model line-up. The potential lack of access to charging for the many people who have to park their cars on the street with no plug in access may prove to be socially discriminatory.
Comprehensive road user charging will be needed both to replace lost fuel duty revenues and as an integrated means to manage congestion and contain particulate emissions. Ad hoc measures by cities and authorities are likely to be disruptive to the transition and will need to be coordinated, especially for freight operators.
The transition of Heavy Goods Vehicles will require a different technology and introduction programmes which has yet to be announced. Once again, like charging infrastructure, this transition will require huge investment if it is to align with the government’s ambitious timetable.
Finally, we would caution that the initial lifecycle analysis on battery technology suggests that we must make every effort to ‘green’ that manufacturing process to avoid embedding harmful emissions in the capital investment on vehicles.
The CILT looks forward to working with the Government and Industry partners to resolving these urgent issues to provide a reliable glide path on the road to zero.