The EU is likely to step up promotion of its Motorways of the Sea concept on which my University of South Wales team and I worked in its early stages. Its objective is to move traffic away from major land routes such as northern France, south-east England and the central region in France. Road freight traffic from Spain would then go directly by sea from Santander or Bilbao to Wales, Ireland, The Netherlands, Germany (via Rotterdam) or Scandinavia.

Direct shipping between the Republic of Ireland and France already exists through Dublin/Rosslare and Cherbourg/Roscoff, though this market is currently relatively small. However, the Motorways of the Sea – a move by the EU to transfer more freight from road to shipping routes – could lead to more direct sea traffic between Ireland and France, Spain and even Rotterdam, particularly if the EU decided to provide environmental policy subsidies.

The impact on Wales’ ports would see ferries avoiding the present Rosslare–Fishguard–Dover route and substituting direct sea operations from Ireland to France – Rosslare–Cherbourg, Cork–Roscoff. Although this route takes an extra six hours using direct ferry operations between Ireland and France, such services are already operating.

Sailings to Cherbourg are being analysed by some ferry companies. It may not be a perfect solution, but once logistics routes have been set up directly between Ireland and France those customers are unlikely to change back to the via Dover sea route and the Channel Tunnel itself.

At present, journeys by sea and road between Dublin and Calais via Wales take 10 hours; a direct sea voyage would be 18 hours. This has operational benefits through providing drivers’ hours rest periods and avoiding unpredictable delays at Dover or Calais.

The reason for no previous route changes became clear in our Motorways of the Sea project. Freight forwarders and logistics companies prefer familiar operations, along safe/secure routes and know exactly where their GPS-tracked vehicles are located. The unknown operational and financial consequences provide no desire to try alternative routes.

For many years, the ferry companies also successfully operated the present routes and saw no reason to change if their customers remained happy. The Channel Tunnel did reduce ferry traffic across La Manche and those companies now see potential new marketable routes.

The impact will be noticeable in Welsh ports and their hinterlands through loss of employment, income and closure of businesses. Many small freight forwarding companies will be affected in Fishguard and Holyhead, and trade between Wales and Ireland is likely to reduce.

This will give the Motorways of the Sea concept of direct sea trade the chance to prove itself through specific benefits to Ireland, The Netherlands, France, Spain and Portugal. These will give just-in-time supply chains a more predictable (if longer) journey time through direct routes.

Professor Stuart Cole CBE FCILT, Committee Member, Public Policies Committee, CILT(UK).