Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry rose in the three months ended August 2015 to their highest level this year, according to the latest Shipping Confidence Survey from international accountant and shipping adviser Moore Stephens.
Respondents to the survey were concerned predominantly about low freight rates and overtonnaging, with continuing doubts also expressed about private equity funding.
In August 2015, the average confidence level expressed by respondents in the markets in which they operate was 5.9 on a scale of 1 (low) to 10 (high). This compares to the 5.3 recorded in May 2015, which equalled the lowest figure recorded in the life of the survey, launched in May 2008 with a confidence rating of 6.8.
All main categories of respondent recorded an increase in confidence this time, most notably charterers (up from 4.2 to 6.5) and owners (up from 5.1 to 5.8). The confidence of brokers, meanwhile, was up from 4.8 to 5.2, and that of managers from 6.1 to 6.4.
Geographically, confidence was up in Asia from 4.9 to 5.8, in Europe from 5.3 to 5.9, and in North America from 6.0 to 6.3.
While some respondents were confident that the shipping markets would improve in line with economic developments, others were more cautious.
A number of respondents echoed the concern about the potentially harmful effect of the entry into the market of non-traditional shipping sources, while there was the usual level of concern about too many ships and too little scrapping.
Another respondent emphasised, “Current market conditions realistically reflect tonnage oversupply in all sectors. Until this corrects itself, global trade patterns will skew supply over demand. Shipping decisions are very often made on sentiment, but current confidence cannot be based on this.”
The likelihood of respondents making a major investment or significant development over the next 12 months was up on the previous survey, on a scale of 1 to 10, from 5.0 to 5.3, equalling the highest figure over the past 12 months. All main categories of respondent were more confident in this regard than they were three months ago, most notably charterers (up from 4.5 to 6.1).
The number of respondents who expected finance costs to increase over the next 12 months was up by eight percentage points, from 40% to 48%. The shift in sentiment in this regard was most notable in the case of owners (up from 35% to 53%) and charterers (up from 33% to 50%).
Competition, demand trends and finance costs featured as the top three factors cited by respondents as those likely to influence performance most significantly over the coming 12 months. The numbers for competition were up 5 percentage points on last time to 25%. There was a one percentage-point drop (to 23%) in the numbers citing demand trends in this regard, and an increase of 4 percentage points (to 18%) for finance costs. Operating costs, unchanged at 11 %, featured in fourth place, ahead of tonnage supply, down 8 percentage points to 7%. Fuel costs, crew supply, regulation and port congestion occupied the remaining places.
There was a fall in the number of respondents anticipating higher freight rates in the tanker and container ship sectors, but expectations of improved rates in the dry bulk trades were up on the figures for May 2015. There was a positive overall net sentiment for all three tonnage categories: +12 for tankers, +21 for dry bulk, and +3 for container ships.
One respondent said, “We expect the tanker market to remain on a steady path over the next 12 months.” Respondents meanwhile expressed “significant concerns about continued oversupply in the dry bulk sector,” while elsewhere it was noted, “Less ordering in the container sector, as a result of mixed/weak results will help to balance supply/demand going forward.”
Richard Greiner, Moore Stephens Partner, Shipping Industry Group says: “It is always encouraging to see a graph moving in the right direction. Perversely, the main reason for the improved level of confidence revealed by our latest survey may be the same as that which saw the industry’s perceived fortunes equalling a seven-year low in May of this year. Volatility works both ways.
“One respondent highlighted a perceived trend towards the so-called bureaucratisation of shipping, with smaller players losing out to their bigger competitors. Few would argue that there has ever been a tougher time for the smaller operator than in today’s industry. Yet such businesses can, and do, survive. To do so, they need to identify a niche role in the market, one in which they can add value and provide a level of service superior to that offered by their competitors. Moreover, in common with even the biggest players, they need a sound business plan.
“The respondents to our survey are asked to comment on their industry expectations over the coming 12 months. Many of them, however, are also interested in the longer-term view, and the portents here are generally encouraging.
“The World Trade Organisation forecasts that growth in the volume of world trade will rise from 2.8% in 2014 to 4.0% in 2016. Again, that is good news for shipping. World trade carried by sea is also on the increase and, despite the current difficult economic climate, the longer-term outlook for the industry remains positive as emerging economies continue to increase their requirements for seaborne goods and raw materials.