Almost 5,000 bus routes have been axed since 2012, with the north-west and east of England the two regions worst affected. Research by the Campaign for Better Transport showed that 27% of bus services, measured by mileage, have disappeared in a decade and the number of services on official registers in England dropped from almost 17,000 in March 2012 to just over 12,000 last March. Whilst this covers both urban and rural areas, the decline in rural areas is felt acutely when combined with associated issues of social isolation, access to education, employment, and healthcare.
In line with the decarbonisation agenda, there needs to be well thought out consideration of how rural areas rise to the challenge of becoming net zero. Public transport solutions need to be part of the mix, but traditional models are not currently providing the solutions suited to the public’s need and don’t currently provide financially sustainable solutions.
Introduction
The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport in the UK (CILT(UK)) operates through a number of Policy Groups, of which one is the Rural Policy Groups (RPG). The purpose of this Group is to investigate current issues affecting the rural community across all modes and all sectors and make representations to appropriate agencies e.g., Central Government, local authorities, trade organizations on behalf of CILT.
Rural mobility covers a wide range of transport topics, different modes, and different sectors – however, rural busses play a very special role in rural communities and this is the focus of this paper.
Purpose of this document
Bus transport will form part of the mobility solution for rural areas, and as such we need to develop a better understanding of rural bus needs. The purpose of this paper is to consider how, through one particular policy area, CILT can help develop this understanding and influence the action needed to reduce the decline in rural bus provision, ensuring that bus transport remains part of the rural transport landscape.
This Paper is focused on how, through the National Bus Strategy for England and Bus Service Improvement Plans (BSIPs), CILT can encourage the development of controlled trials of low-risk free fares rural routes. Whilst this paper is based on English funding routes, there are applications for the Scottish and Welsh contexts.
Background
Buses have been in decline in rural areas for decades. There are many reasons for this trend,
including more dispersed housing and employment areas, and the centralising of public service facilities, especially health, mostly to edge of town areas not easy to serve by public transport. In addition, government policy has been that provision of unprofitable bus services should be a discretionary expenditure by local authorities. As a result, since the 2011 austerity budget, bus service expenditure has been significantly squeezed. In many ways, government policies support car use, resulting in encouraging car use over public transport, further exaggerating the decline in bus use and consequently effecting the economics of rural bus provision.
The provision of a bus service should be seen as an agent through which government can level up local economies, provide better health and wellbeing outcomes by access to services and importantly as a means to reduce car use in pursuit of our legal Net Zero by 2050 goal. The current regulatory and funding regime does not support this purpose.
… It can be reasonably presumed that, with the cap now extended, knowledge and trialling of bus travel will become more widespread …
Bus fare costs
A combination of factors have come together to raise the cost of providing bus services, and in rural areas in particular to depress ridership. Some of this is borne out of the regulatory framework, but more recently the ridership has been depressed as a consequence of Covid and the cost of living crisis, with the financial impact made worse by the rising cost of fuel and wages emanating from the Russian-Ukraine war. Apart from the high fuel cost it is doubtful that these will change in the short term.
As a consequence, a high proportion of the rural bus network is funded by LTAs (Local Transport Authorities), primarily but not only through the award of local bus contracts to operators to provide the specified service for which they are paid contracted sums. Other key revenue sources are (a) concessionary fare reimbursement, (b) reimbursement for mandatory free home to school travel, (c) a temporary post-covid grant and (d) Bus Service Operators Grant. The last two are funded directly by central government (for England) and both have an uncertain future as government considers their relevance going forward. The key point is that the greater the proportion of income stream which is not funded by the passenger boarding the bus, the lower the risk of a fares free trial.
The government agreed to fund a £2 cap on single bus fares throughout England, starting in January 2023 initially for three months but subsequently extended until June. More recently it has announced its extension until November 2024 (but with the cap increased to £2.50 from October 2023). This is a welcome announcement as it provides some certainty going forward and further embeds the principle of lowering fare levels across the country, making them more affordable to a wider section of the community.
It is also welcome to LTAs and operators as it enables greater certainty in forward planning. Seen as a policy for supporting citizens through the cost of living crisis, it could be regarded inappropriate that the assistance is at the sole discretion of operators whose legitimate concerns are not the necessarily the same as the intention behind the initiative. In some LTAs the cap is not applied on routes it subsidises in areas where commercial fares are not capped, making them complicit in this as well.
Transport Focus has undertaken research into the impact of the fare cap scheme. In summary they found that 10% of those surveyed said they were using the bus more, having risen from 7% in January to 11% in March. Awareness of the scheme also rose across the period. Of those surveyed, 27% use buses once or twice a year or less, and importantly whilst an additional 14% don’t use buses and would not consider using them, 19% of the survey – one fifth – don’t use buses but with the cheaper fares now available would consider using them. It may therefore be concluded that there is a potentially rich seam of modal transfer that can be enticed by price. It can be reasonably presumed that, with the cap now extended, knowledge and trialling of bus travel will become more widespread.
Other solutions to creating access to public transport include demand responsive transport (DRT). DRT is a generic name given when buses do not follow fixed routes, and the term has become synonymous with booking using an app or other online means. In recent years significant funding has been provided to DRT trials, however, there has only been some limited success and trials continue due mainly to political will rather than commercial or service success.
… A co-ordinated series of trials in different socio-economic and spatial geographic areas provides an opportunity to understand the dynamic behind the decision-making of rural dwellers, by age, income group etc …
Fares free rural bus route trial
The BSIP provides an opening to create an alternative to DRT. Building on the £2 fare cap trial, the opportunity exists to promote the development of a series of trials to identify the extent to which price is a determinant in peoples’ travel choices. It can be expected that for some journeys the propensity to change mode is low – for example to access a health centre in the next village – but could be much higher for other trips, such as to work, unfunded school (e.g. over 16s or out of area) and town centre retail.
By mounting trials in a number of areas of the country it will be possible to establish whether there is a different propensity in different areas and therefore the extent to which central or local policies are likely to be more successful in contributing to the Net Zero requirements.
It is in part because of the disproportionately high cost of regulation of rural bus services, per passenger carried, coupled with the approach to spatial planning that has decentralised urban centres making them less easy for out of town buses to serve, that has been responsible for the decline in rural bus services, but now provides the basis for the proposed fares free bus route trials. It also reflects the need for investment in traditional passenger transport trials, to balance out the investment in expensive DRT trials that has to date been provided.
Why we think this trial will help
The trials will help to develop understanding of elasticity of demand, which was historically measured at periodic intervals, to identify the motivating factors that will lead to a change of travel habit. These cover such indicators as price, frequency of bus service, access to bus stops etc. These all feed into Generalised Cost models which themselves help inform policy and strategic investment decisions. This research is not ongoing and therefore a fares free trial will help identify the current state of thinking amongst rural dwellers in terms of their propensity to use buses and its relationship to cost. The Transport Focus research, early in the £2 fare cap scheme, indicates that price is a factor in creating a willingness to mode shift to bus.
Some rural bus routes earn a low proportion of total income from on-bus fares. On many routes, the person travelling is not paying the fare, a public authority is doing so away from the bus. For these people, price is not a determinant whether or not to travel. However, there are many routes on which as little as only 10% to 20% of total income is derived from the fare-paying cohort. In some instances, the cost of replacing on-bus fares for a trial period could be as little as less than £50,000 for a two year trial. Identifying such routes, including those which are sufficiently standalone to avoid diversion from one to another skewing the results, would mean that the cost of a trial would be low, as would the financial risk of failure. The level of investment required to support these trials is therefore less than for providing DRT and have the potential for greater modal shift. It is proposed that funding would be accessed through an alternative to DRT trials rather than reallocating funding from bus initiatives.
A co-ordinated series of trials in different socio-economic and spatial geographic areas provides an opportunity to understand the dynamic behind the decision-making of rural dwellers, by age, income group etc. This should be conducted with the involvement of all relevant stakeholders, especially with knowledge of local needs and aspirations. The resulting evidence can be aggregated to national level and inform policymaking at national, sub-national and local levels.
Features of a trial
There are a number of features that fare free trials ought to take into account. Consideration would need to be given to legacy of any funded initiatives to ensure an exit strategy is developed on completion of any trials. As part of an exit strategy, any trial would need clear KPI’s to define the success or otherwise, this includes accessibility.
It is imperative when developing the opportunities for scenarios and locations that it is done in conjunction with all stakeholders including Parish and Town Councils and user groups. This will help ensure timetables really reflect local needs and aren't set up and operated in isolation with other services. This will also ensure there are no unintended consequences of the trials, for example inadvertently developing fare free trials alongside paying routes.
… As part of an exit strategy, any trial would need clear KPI’s to define the success or otherwise, this includes accessibility …
Scenarios
As part of the trial set up, evidence is needed that illustrates the impacts of fares free in different situations. Therefore, proposed fare free trials need to reflect different scenarios to develop a full picture of where this solution could apply and where it maybe is less successful.
It is envisaged a choice of different scenarios would be needed to test how people react in different circumstances. The range would be based on physical landscape, socio-economic or demographic circumstances. In each case, existing routes would be selected that fill the general criteria of:
Being subsidised by the local transport authority.
Having a low proportion of total income derived from on-bus fare transactions.
Not significantly overlapping with other routes (accepting there will likely always be some overlap close to town nodal points),
Within these criteria are a number of scenarios:
Physical landscape – upland areas where communities tend to be concentrated into valleys are therefore more likely to feature shorter walk distances to bus stops than lowland areas where population is more widely scattered making bus routeing more difficult and also increasing likely walk distance to stops. It can be expected that these will produce different elasticities of demand and a comparison of such areas would test the hypothesis. The implication is that a different policy approach may be appropriate in defined areas.
Socio-economic circumstances are likely to produce different results. Thus low wage areas are likely to be more responsive to a fares free initiative than high wage ones. There will also be a bias against modal transfer where the service pattern is not reflective of current demand patterns. There is also probably greater propensity to mode shift from cars in rural tourism areas, so long as the route network and times of operation meet tourism demand, for there is greater reluctance to drive in less familiar areas. All these circumstances need to be incorporated in the choice of trial areas and routes.
Demographic considerations – there will be less take up in areas with a higher proportion of older people who already travel free on the well-established free bus pass scheme. That does not rule out application in such areas, indeed they may form a useful comparator with those who do benefit. The publicity may, for example, produce new ridership in age groups already eligible for free travel but who have not, for whatever reason, taken it up. There is known to be a greater propensity in younger adults to mode switch so it is essential that trials are conducted in areas where they make up a significant proportion of the ridership, for example bespoke University-sponsored routes in urban areas or on routes that link rural hinterlands to sixth form colleges.
It is essential that participant authorities are careful in the choice of trial locations and routes to ensure all these variables are reflected.
… Often rural is considered an issue that needs to be ‘solved’ but this needs to be reframed as an opportunity to be taken. Rural communities don’t want or need the same as urban spaces. The solutions need to be based around local needs …
Our plan
We are keen to engage with key stakeholders to establish how this concept can be developed and implemented. To date we have engaged with a number of influential groups including the Rural Services Network and aim to carry this on, promoting the concept with those that can affect change.
Often rural is considered an issue that needs to be ‘solved’ but this needs to be reframed as an opportunity to be taken. Rural communities don’t want or need the same as urban spaces. The solutions need to be based around local needs. We know that rural mobility will be made up of a lot of different types of transport options and this proposal highlights one of those options.
Next steps
We plan to engage with national government and local authorities, but we are always interested to hear from or about other interested parties, so if you have any comments on what you have read, please contact the Rural Policy Group:
Morag Robertson
Chair of Rural Policy Group, CILT(UK)
Daniel Parker-Klein
Director of Policy and Communications, CILT(UK)
The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport
Earlstrees Court, Earlstrees Road
Corby, Northants NN17 4AX
United Kingdom