(Re)Inventing the Wheel

Vision 2035

The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport’s well-received report, Vision 2035, was published in September 2011. Its purpose was to look to the future and visualise how transport and logistics in the UK would develop, with the aim of identifying challenges the sector would face and the policy instruments needed to serve society as effectively as possible.

The Institute regards Vision 2035 as a starting point for continuing work on likely future changes and the development of more detailed ideas on how best to meet the likely demands on logistics and the transport system.

The Institute is promoting a series of studies, discussions and other activities to build on the original Vision 2035. This report: (Re)Inventing the Wheel, prepared 3 by the Institute’s Logistics & Transport Technology Group, is the fifth of the Vision 2035 series. The Institute hopes that this publication will stimulate debate, leading to a fuller understanding of future issues and ideas on how our own members and the transport and logistics sectors more widely can help to improve our response to them.

Technology by mode

Table 1

Executive summary

By 2035, technological developments in transport could make better use of capacity, result in less congestion and overcrowding, reduce environmental and health impacts and thereby improve quality of life. But some technologies may have adverse or unexpected consequences.

This report examines a range of issues relating to transport over the next 20-25 years and looks at potential new technologies ranging from autonomous electric cars to real time journey management.

Findings from this report include:

• Dramatic increases in communications have more potential to improve journeys.

• Mobility as a Service (MaaS) has the potential to enable easier journeys.

• Payment systems will continue to improve and make it easier for consumers to choose the most economic form of travel.

• Social media use will provide a valuable source of knowledge about travellers’ perceptions for transport providers and researchers.

• Open data provides a rich resource of travel data which enables trends to be monitored and changes to be forecast.

• Transport must contribute to avoiding dangerous climate change and local health impacts by moving quickly to reduce the amount of carbon used.

• There will be benefits of autonomous control.

• Government should encourage competition between transport providers.

• Policy makers should incorporate uncertainty in decision making.

1. Introduction

1.1 Physicist and Nobel Laureate Niels Bohr said: ‘Prediction is very difficult, especially if it’s about the future’ and we therefore urge caution in forecasting the effects of any of the technologies we have considered. Indeed, it is possible that the biggest change will happen as a result of a technology we have not considered. We should be prepared to be flexible, and this means looking at scenarios that we can think of, as well as being willing to change direction if it seems that our forecasts have gone awry.

1.2 CILT’s Vision 2035 programme began in 2011 and looked forward to see how transport might change over the next 25 years. After the first report, there have been further studies of UK freight, aviation, transport planning and Wales. This study, covering technology, was initiated in the spring of 2016 and is intended as a further contribution to the Vision 2035 programme.

1.3 The objective of the study was to review the potential of technology in transport that might be available by 2035 in relation to quality of life and value for money (public and private), in order to advise on policy and priorities for research and development. The study was completed by a small team of CILT members whose names are noted at Appendix 1. The audience for the report is policy-makers and research funders who are assumed to be technologically literate, but not expert.

1.4 In the report, the headings are about particular elements of technology. We begin with Communications and Interconnectivity, which we consider is a key area where technology will continue to change the way we travel and ship goods. We then consider Mobility as a Service (MaaS), which explores this developing concept of matching journey requirements to available transport resources bringing together information available from transport (and possibly non-transport) sources, then reviewing developments in Payment Methods, Fares Products and Reservation Systems. Social Media is a particular use of communications that are already embedded in modern life and has been embraced as an invaluable marketing and monitoring tool by many innovative transport companies. We then consider Open Data and Co-operative Systems, which also involve the community at large, but are where organisations share operational and other data sets openly and developers provide consumer-facing applications that perhaps bring together several data sets to inform and assist users on current performance and with their own use of transport systems. The next two headings, Traction, Emissions and Energy, and Autonomous Control, are much more related to the physical aspects of technology, although part of our remit is to understand their social impact. The penultimate heading covers Security and Resilience, and our final section seeks to draw some conclusions and make recommendations.

1.5 We have included some vignettes to illustrate the way in which travellers or shippers might benefit from technology. These are deliberately written as simple stories, to make it clear that the user does not care about the technology, only that it provides a quicker, safer, more comfortable and more reliable journey. We also show in Table 1 the way technologies can be considered in each mode of travel.

1.6 One particular technological advance that we do not consider in this report is high-speed rail. This technology has been refined over 50 years and, as with other rail technologies, is continuing to develop. Although the HS2 project, planned to be completed by 2035, will undoubtedly incorporate the latest refinements, it should be recognised that its primary objective is to provide additional capacity, including freeing capacity on existing rail lines for additional local services and freight. It will also have social and economic consequences, but there are numerous studies of HS2, of which CILT has made its case for HS2 and we do consider that we could not add to these in this report. In the longer term (well beyond our 2035 timescale), it is possible that maglev or Hyperloop technology may provide an alternative option to high-speed rail.

1.7 Throughout the report, we look at the way in which these technologies impact on society, equally in terms of the ability to make better use of transport (including the peak/off-peak ratio), reducing the carbon impact, and the impact on different groups – for example, urban/rural, young/old. We suggest that more effort must be put into research to throw light on our understanding of how changes in transport technology and the improvements in journey quality and time feed through into wider impacts on society and the economy. Of particular interest is the integration of transport investment and spatial planning, which has the potential to increase the supply of housing and the availability of jobs through improving accessibility, reducing journey times and greater reliability and resilience. Better evidence on how developments in transport technology might influence the location of economic activity at a local and at a wider regional level would be of value to decision-makers when assessing the role of transport in policies aimed at rebalancing the economic geography of the country.

1.8 Technological developments can pose a challenge to the established institutional framework for delivering improvements to transport provision. Smarter vehicles will, in some scenarios, be capable of making better use of existing road capacity and provide an alternative to investment in physical assets, but smarter vehicles also need to be more smartly used taking account of the limits of highway and parking capacity. Yet Government’s ability to influence the decisions of individuals about the type of vehicle they use and how they use them is very limited. So, while smarter vehicles might provide a cost-effective alternative to new road capacity, Government’s ability to deliver the smarter option would require policy changes that many might find unacceptable.

2. Communications and interconnectivity

2.1 This section covers:

• Communications between vehicles and infrastructure.

• Passenger information systems.

• Routeing and scheduling systems.

2.2 Communication between vehicles and their bases is now widespread, so the question for the future is how much further this will develop and what areas will it cover. This section looks at communications between vehicles, infrastructure, drivers, passengers and goods, and ends with a cautionary tale.

2.3 Aircraft, ships, trains, buses, trucks and some cars have been communicating with their bases for some time, in order to know their location and other key data. The amount of data communicated is increasing, such that aircraft, trains and road vehicles can send information about their maintenance requirements before they reach the end of their journey, and this is likely to increase over the next 25 years to enable better planning and utilisation. Aircraft and trains are controlled through such systems and some train and bus systems include dynamic real-time information on passenger numbers. As well as maintenance, an accurate vehicle location system can also be used to provide service regulation and planning.

2.4 Trains communicate with the infrastructure either by automatic control, or through in-cab signalling, and it is possible that this will extend to road vehicles, such that the road and vehicle exchange information. Currently, this is done through the driver, but direct communication will be a key element of autonomous control and will be discussed in a later section. A further development of such communications might also be part of a ‘smart city’ where there is an Internet of Things in which different elements of the city are continually communicating with each other, in order to improve efficiency.

2.5 The management of infrastructure networks, be they roads, railways, depots, or other parts of a logistics supply chain, is also made more efficient by communications. Control centres are vital to direct resources, deal with delays and identify maintenance issues through automatic monitoring and cameras.

2.6 Passenger information systems using websites, apps and mobile devices are now widespread such that passengers can both use journey planning systems to explore options and know in real time how their bus, train or flight is running, or what traffic is like on the roads. This capability is developing so that multimode public transport planners are extending it to allow incorporation of road feeder journeys – for example, Park & Ride or taxi/private hire trips. Many public transport vehicles now have passenger information displays that enable current location, as well as time, to be monitored in real time and this information is also frequently available on passengers’ mobile devices. Much thought is devoted to disruption management and it can be expected that passenger and traffic information systems will develop to automatically suggest any alternatives available if connections are missed, or journeys are delayed by congestion.

2.7 These developments will require some institutional changes – for example, in ensuring that the standards and protocols are robust and provide resilience against natural and human interference, and that sufficient capacity is provided in the communications channels. Some of these changes may require agreement at international level. There is also a need to ensure that funding is adequate, yet efficiently allocated and that a multiplicity of systems are not adopted, which will then be vulnerable to cancellation when cost pressures arise. Key issues surround agreement of business models that enable fair sharing of costs and revenues to take place between the contributors of data and operators of services. Frequently, agreement of the business model is more difficult than establishing the technology of the new system.

2.8 The societal effects of these developments are likely to widen the gap between urban and rural areas and between generations. The greatest need, in terms of providing capacity, is in urban areas, but it is probably the small towns that will struggle to compete. Areas with better communications will naturally tend to become more densely developed, although a strong communications network could be a selling point of a particular development. Rural areas may not need additional transport capacity, but the challenge of providing transport connectivity in such areas means that communications networks need to be of sufficient quality – for example, in terms of speed – to compensate. Other studies, for example by the National Infrastructure Commission, have identified the need for improved broadband connectivity.

2.9 Routeing and scheduling systems are routinely used by public transport and freight transport operators to ensure that the resources are optimised in providing the service required. In freight transport, fixed schedules are being replaced by flexible routeing, in particular for last mile delivery systems. Most public transport systems operate to a fixed schedule, but shared taxis and on-demand buses provide a service that may become more prevalent in rural areas, where the provision of fixed schedule services are becoming increasingly uneconomic. Routeing and scheduling systems will be integrated across all platforms, which will allow commercial fleets to collaborate to reduce the impact on road capacities, particularly at peak times. It is not clear if such systems will have any benefit for private car journeys, but there is a role in optimising taxi and car-club vehicle use.

2.10 Research and training needs arising from these developments will require transport professionals to have an understanding of communications technology and the potential for interconnectivity, with organisations having to employ specialists to ensure that appropriate systems are acquired. Training programmes could use simulations developed on the basis of data supplied through the communications systems.

2.11 We urge caution in assuming that communications improvements might significantly reduce the need for travel, recalling that the hype about video conferencing replacing face-to-face meetings has not been sustained, either because the technology is not good enough or because of inherent human need for personal contact, which video conferencing simply encourages.

3. Mobility as a service and shared mobility

3.1 Mobility as a Service (MaaS) is a phrase increasingly being used to describe the ways in which many of the technological innovations enable several modes and/or different providers to be packaged into providing door-to-door service associated with one or more end users. MaaS providers might not themselves be suppliers of transport, but might, for example, be tourist attractions or event promoters that package mobility and access with entry to their prime products. The speed of take-off of MaaS will be strongly influenced by the abilities of large, interested utility and service provider market entrants – for example, Xerox, E-on, Siemens – to process and analyse data to provide a compelling MaaS service package to consumers, and by the pressure that city administrations can exert on passenger transport operators to agree to bundle their services within MaaS offering. In the UK, the success of the latter will depend strongly on the degree of devolution that city administrations are allowed by central government.

3.2 Research will be needed on the barriers to the adoption of MaaS, how the transition to its adoption might be affected, what the key influences are on consumer acceptance, the practicalities of adopting MaaS in adjoining areas and in rural areas. Related to the last named is research on the practical principles of defining geographical boundaries of MaaS schemes. It would also be interesting to research the overall societal benefits such as mode shift, congestion reduction and time savings. Key areas of R&D could include:

• Role of new service entrants.

• Business models.

• Bundling of modes and offerings.

• Transition to introduction of MaaS.

• User preferences.

• Service areas.

Such research would need to be carried out in an international climate of co-operation, utilising the experience of other countries where progress towards MaaS has been pioneering – for example, Finland – and the several international forums that currently exist.

3.3 The introduction of MaaS is a golden opportunity to use pricing to offer greater choices to the user and to maximise the efficient use of infrastructure. The issue of pricing is discussed in later sections on payment methods, autonomous vehicles, traction energy and emissions, and in the conclusions. One of the opportunities created by improved communications is in shared mobility. Schemes for shared taxis, dial-a-ride, car clubs, car-pooling, lift sharing and bike sharing have been in existence for some time, but their take-up has been limited. Disruptive technologies such as used by Uber, Lyft and similar taxi products have demonstrated that significant change in social habits can result. It is possible that the acceptance of such technologies may affect the use of shared mobility products.

4. Payment methods, fares products and reservation systems

4.1 The use of cash for payment is now considerably reduced, although a significant proportion of transactions for many bus and rail operators remain cash based. Improving technology is enabling a whole range of ticketless options to be developed, including smartcards, contactless payments and mobile phone tickets with the opportunity to reward frequent travellers with discounts or periodic capping. Not everyone has a suitable bank account or appropriate mobile phone, so care must be taken to ensure that disadvantaged groups are not prevented from travelling.

4.2 Transport for London (TfL) has pioneered the use of EMV (contactless bankcard) technology across all modes for which it is responsible, including rail, underground, tram, bus, river and cycle hire. One of the features of this development is that the full range of capping is available to entitled users (although concessionary rates are not yet available through EMV). Although TfL’s back office enables this, the potential exists for banks and others such as mobile communications companies to develop back office systems that would enable them to offer transport payment services in other areas without the capabilities and resources available in London. A precedent may have been set in a parallel technology in that the journey planners provided by Google Maps have replaced bespoke journey planners in regions and cities in countries around the world.

4.3 Payment for road use and parking is also being made easier, with various electronic passes or automatic number plate recognition technology for tolls, congestion charge zones and car parks. Refinements are likely, including freight-industry-wide telemetry systems, which will enable this technology to arrange payments for time and location related road-user charging.

4.4 By 2035, this technology is likely to be fully developed and in widespread use. As noted above, the data it provides will be useful for planning and managing operations, but it may also be useful in planning future fares products. There are wider questions of the level of fares paid for public transport and the ability to be flexible in order to make better use of capacity that improved technology will facilitate, but that have significant political implications.

5. Social media

5.1 Much new social media activity will be the norm in 20 years, but we also recognise that there will be a significant number of products/applications that will not continue and will be replaced. Instead, we seek to identify the types of service that will endure and become established. This section will include how information is delivered and the interface with users, business models for delivery, the use in different modes and the potential for research.

5.2 Social media is best known for being delivered on mobile devices, but they are also used in the home and at the workplace on desktops and laptops, in the street and at bus stops, train stations and airport terminals, and in the vehicles. The key factor in their success is the ease of use, so user-centred design is vitally important. In our view, the most successful social media platforms of the future will have the following characteristics:

• They will demonstrate strong virtual communities, but with fast-changing levels of popularity.

• They allow, enable or incentivise direct engagement between consumers/users and transport businesses.

• They have close links and strong exploitation of personal demand characteristics, targeting personal data on, for example, preferences, interests and buying habits.

• They will have a customer look and feel and incorporate easy links to additional features.

We also note that user-centred design will become key to successful adoption of social media platforms, because:

• Older people may be strong users of social media (adopted when younger, or through learning in retirement) and will wish to continue to participate as age and infirmity makes use of digital equipment harder, hence a requirement for adaptations such as large keys and screens.

• Smart portable devices should enable easy access through interfaces which are as intuitive as possible.

• Social media will increasingly be used to communicate with and control devices linked through the Internet of Things.

The business model for delivering social media that seems most likely to endure is the ‘freemium’ model, where the basic platform is free but additional services are provided for a fee. It may be that the balance between free and charged services will change over time (as they have done in other products – for example, online newspapers or flights), but a fully charged model is unlikely to achieve a sufficiently wide customer base.

5.3 One particular area where social media could be developed for transport is in research and development. Public consultation, traditionally carried out by a questionnaire (mostly online nowadays) has begun to use social media – for example, by the use of sentiment mapping techniques to give rich information. Also, transport businesses can exploit their own social media data (as opposed to letting the social media platforms lead on this). It is therefore important to incorporate social media features into smart-device apps for transport-users. Transport industry organisations can also use social media for internal business use – for example, for mobile workforces – with the enabling of effective control and analysis of that social media from within the business, without comprising either data or business integrity.

6. Open data and co-operative systems

6.1 Large amounts of data have long been available, in terms of sales, ticket data, traffic counts and many other information packages, but until recently have been difficult to use, except for specific purposes such as to redesign a road junction. Recent legislation and statutory guidance has required or encouraged transport organisations to make available operational and performance data through application programming interfaces for third-party use. The trend is now that systems for analysing big data are becoming cheaper and more widespread, although caution must be exercised, because of the amount of manipulation required before the data is usable. Nevertheless, there are examples of how this might be used in the future, including:

• Large organisations such as TfL have a policy of open data that enables individual developers to provide applications or to undertake research.

• Applications for real-time passenger information on a national or regional basis are widely available, as are national rail ticket booking applications.

• Large amounts of data are very useful in model building, which can then be used to test future scenarios.

• Automatic vehicle location systems, currently used for buses and some freight vehicles, can be integrated with other traffic monitoring data in real time to improve traffic signal priority systems.

• Similarly to railways, co-location of (or real-time communication between) the controllers responsible for general traffic flow, the police, buses and/or other fleet vehicles offers significant opportunities for optimisation of total system performance in highway networks.

• Drivers using mobile applications such as Google Maps for providing directions automatically feed back data on traffic flows, which enables other drivers to take alternative routes when congestion is identified.

• Sharing of IT and communications infrastructure – for example, smartcard and mobile phone tracking.

6.2 From a freight perspective, there is potential for the use of big data for commercial transport planning in intelligent transport systems. These would link all of the different data sources to enable smoother traffic patterns and dynamic road management. The predicted increase in traffic in large cities means that at a city level there will be a requirement to improve significantly the efficiency of vehicles on their roads. This means the ability to ensure vehicles are at capacity for as much as possible through load-sharing between companies to maximise vehicles filled. Dynamic routeing and scheduling as new requirements may appear en route. Another area for development is the standardisation of building information modelling, which, once rolled out universally, will mean it is easier to understand any road restriction issues – for example, low bridges (a common problem for truck drivers and buses), width restrictions, loading and unloading rules and layout changes – which will allow improved efficiency of route planning.

6.3 Where a large number of individuals provide data as they travel – for example, by touching in or out with a smartcard, or by using mobile device applications that track locations, such as Google Maps – this data becomes the raw material for analysis. Telephone companies gather vast amounts of time-stamped location data through tracking the SIM cards in mobile devices. Subject to rigorous anonymisation, this data has been successfully used to replace origin-destination and routeing survey information in transportation studies.

6.4 Crowdsourcing, whereby individuals agree to provide information either proactively or passively through explicit agreement to share some or all tracking information collected through a mobile app, is becoming increasingly common. An example is OpenStreetMap, where participants deliberately submit or edit geographic data – that is, not just through location tracking as part of a journey – in order to create or improve editable maps of the world. We have already noted how sentiment mapping from social media can provide crowdsourced data about how travellers feel about their journeys.

6.5 Two particular issues need to be addressed by these open data systems:

• Traffic management, parking and loading rules need to be acknowledged; this will become especially significant for autonomous vehicles – see later sections.

• Pricing and charging regimes need to be included, in particular if road pricing becomes widespread, to ensure that systems maximise the efficiency of use of the infrastructure.

6.6 Multi-agent systems (MAS) and agent-based modelling (ABM) are an emerging class of systems founded on the masses of available data now available in real time and that recognises that individual actors in transport and the supply chain continually face and make choices as to their next actions and best strategies. The terms are broadly interchangeable, although technically they are subtly different.

6.7 Both are based on the concept of complex systems thinking, which argues that many factors interact to produce a social or economic outcome and the idea of binary linear trade-offs is overly simplistic; true relationships are multifaceted and non-linear. The new breed of systems captures that diversity and can provide both new forms of dynamic scheduling and give improved insights into the system characteristics. This is in contrast to conventional optimisation, where the algorithms reflect the interaction of a relatively small number of variables in a deterministic way and provide a static view of the optimum.

6.8 A MAS is a computerised system composed of multiple interacting intelligent agents within an environment. MAS can be used to solve problems that are difficult or impossible for an individual agent to solve. Intelligence may include some methodical, functional or procedural approach, or an algorithmic search. Agents in such computerised systems negotiate with each other around their individual preferred outcomes. Application of such systems is now found in applications such as Uber, which allocates work to drivers, maritime oil tanker scheduling, dynamic freight routing of trucks and in factories for plant management. They are particularly appropriate where the environment is uncertain, such as delays, variations in commercial terms and the new demands on the system. MAS are increasingly embedded in traffic management and are a part of autonomous vehicles programming.

7. Traction, emissions and energy

7.1 Many new technologies start as a solution looking for a problem (and some result in a genuine improvement in transport), but perhaps the greatest problem facing society, climate change, is clearly one that could be addressed by technology. While there have been dramatic improvements in fuel efficiency and emissions, the use of fossil fuels in transport must decrease significantly if the UK is to meet its carbon targets. At a local level, air quality is also a major issue that must be dealt with in order to keep within legislated limits. This section considers electric and hybrid power in road vehicles, alternative fuels, the special case of aviation, the construction/use/disposal cycle and electricity generation and distribution.

7.2 Electric road vehicles are now in production and Government policy is to encourage their take-up through a range of financial and other support mechanisms. As the battery and charging technology improves, this take-up will gather pace such that, by 2035, no new cars should be produced that rely on fossil fuel alone. There is a question on the role of hybrid technology, which still uses fossil fuel, and it may be that hybrid-powered vehicles remain in production. There are particular challenges for buses and trucks to be powered solely by electricity, although pure electric buses are being introduced, with fleets in Nottingham and London, as well as overseas.

7.3 Where it is not possible to use electric power, alternative fuels may be appropriate. Compressed natural gas (CNG) can be used in larger vehicles, such as buses or HGVs, and can be produced from sustainable sources such as biodigestion, or from the grid which will increasingly be supplied from sustainable sources. The buses themselves use familiar technology with many of the same components as diesel vehicles, but with greater reliability.

7.4 Again, where direct electric supplies are not available, hybrid systems may also be used for trains, trams and buses. Hybrid buses are commonplace, but there are concerns about their lifespan, which is determined by the lifespan of their batteries, currently assumed to be around seven years (half of that for a conventional bus), although this may lead to a secondary market for vehicles with replaced batteries. Also, there needs to be further thought about the materials used to manufacture the batteries and their ultimate disposal. Various forms of propulsion have been tried for buses over many years, including flywheel stored energy, but the only application of this technology currently in the UK is the Stourbridge branch railway, using a small vehicle that has proved to be very reliable and cost-effective. A battery-powered train has been tested in service with positive results that might lead to services being extended to lines where no fixed power supply is available. Similarly, some tram networks are using short catenary-free sections in sensitive locations – for example, Midland Metro in central Birmingham.

7.5 Intermediate modes such as trolley buses and trams use electric power supplied through wires or, where wires are inappropriate, there are options for stored energy in batteries or flywheels. Trains can also use electric power through overhead wires or third rails, and a continuous programme of electrification should see most of train mileage powered by electricity by 2035. Some more remote rail lines with limited traffic (particularly freight) may have to continue to use non-electric traction.

7.6 At present, the emissions requirement for freight vehicles is Euro VI or 6 (trucks or vans). The current view is that there will not be a Euro VII or 7, but instead the focus is going to be on larger and longer vehicles, so we could expect to see an increase in double-deck trailers and longer length trailers, as this reduces the number of vehicles required and improves efficiency. There is also likely to be a move away from the current regulations on vehicle length that mean that all trucks have a flat front. This will lead to more aerodynamic and safer designs that soften the front of the vehicle.

7.7 The vehicle technology for electric traction is advancing satisfactorily, but a key challenge identified in the CILT’s Transport Use of Carbon study in 2012 is the carbon used in generating the electricity. Decarbonisation of electricity generation is critical and significant progress has been made in recent years in reducing emissions from electricity generation below the carbon budget, although this was in part due to mild weather reducing power demand. The mix between renewable, nuclear and fossil fuel will continue to change, but pressure must continue to be exerted given the undoubted additional costs of lower carbon generation methods. Carbon capture and storage technologies will almost certainly be necessary for the share of electricity that remains to be generated from fossil fuels.

7.8 The distribution of electricity to transport vehicles is also a key factor in the uptake of electric vehicles. While many homes can now supply power for charging, homes without dedicated parking require street facilities. Workplace and public car parks are suitable locations for charging, but the payment system must operate equitably.

7.9 CILT’s Transport Use of Carbon study also noted that carbon is not used just in the operating stage, but also in the construction of the vehicle and in its disposal at the end of its life. Such whole-life emissions may be 15 to 20% more than those from use, or even up to 40% if infrastructure construction is considered. New trains will have to be built of lighter materials to minimise their energy use.

7.10 Aviation has to be considered as a special case, because there is no effective large-scale alternative to the use of fossil fuel. Small amounts of biofuel 7may be used and engine technology and other improvements will reduce emissions, but there will be a need for carbon trading to enable a growth of aviation activity. The UK Sustainable Aviation Group has produced a roadmap to achieve a 50% reduction from 2005 to 2050 through a combination of fuel burn reduction, alternative fuels and carbon trading, and by 2035 the roadmap shows a reduction of about 25% from 2005 levels. The Committee on Climate Change has advised that a 60% increase in aircraft movements from 2005 to 2050 would achieve the Government’s carbon target and the recommendation from the Airports Commission for a third runway at Heathrow is in line with this target (although this will need to be confirmed in the forthcoming National Policy Statement for airports).

7.11 One of the key issues resulting from the change in the way vehicles are powered is how this cost is charged to the user. There are, of course, wider considerations about Government subsidies for generation of electric power, whether nuclear, solar, wind or carbon capture. However, it may also be necessary to subsidise the production of electric cars and batteries funded by a carbon tax on non-electric modes. The reduction in fossil fuel use will lead to a reduction in revenue from fuel duty and VAT and provides an opportunity for the Government to reconsider how road use is paid for, including CILT’s long-standing support for road pricing.

7.12 Technology that reduces emissions is clearly welcome, but care must be taken in forecasting the effect, because of the interaction with society and human behaviour. The historic encouragement of diesel traction to reduce one type of emission has led to the emergence of another. The Government should consider a range of scenarios that might emerge from the widespread use of electricity in transport.

8. Autonomous control

8.1 This area of technology is subject to a significant degree of over optimism, both in terms of the timescale before adoption and the chances of success. While there is significant investment from large companies such as vehicle manufacturers and Google and Government research funds, those involved urge caution in terms of the timescale, which is unpredictable.

8.2 There is, of course, already a significant degree of automatic control in many transport systems. Automatic metros have been operating for many years – for example, on London Underground, and without a driver on the London Docklands Light Railway. Aircraft operate under automatic control for many phases of flight including, on occasions, the critical landing phase. Current technology assists drivers and operators – for example, automatic braking systems that reduce skidding, car parking and obstruction warning systems.

8.3 The objectives for automatic control, and therefore the financial and economic justifications for the investment, are safety, efficiency and capacity. Railway safety practices already ensure a very low level of accidents, and much better safety cases could be made for other parts of the railway, such as the workforce and trespass. Poor road safety, however, continues to be a distressing and expensive fact of life, so there will undoubtedly be some safety benefits from automatic road vehicles. However, the benefits from efficiency and capacity and not clear. Efficiency is often the absence of delay or reliability, while capacity may also be considered as an efficiency measure, although it is normally just making more use of the infrastructure. We can look at how autonomous control might meet these objectives in the future for each mode.

8.4 In aviation, improved airspace control procedures will be needed to enable a growth of demand and a reduction in delays. Future aircraft will have improved performance and control that will enable more precise routeing. The UK Civil Aviation Authority and National Air Traffic Services have a long-term programme of improving capacity and reducing delays in aircraft arrivals routings, including the elimination of holding, and the UK is involved with the Single European Sky project to improve airspace (which should not be affected by the UK leaving the EU). Individual airports will make local airspace changes to improve capacity and reduce environmental impact.

8.5 As with aircraft and some automatic metros, it is unlikely that heavy rail will see the removal of a person from the cab, but more driver assistance and automation would increase capacity. Moving block signalling is not automation per se, but it includes a range of communications between the infrastructure and the trains that will automatically adjust the headway depending on the situation. Some of the communications may be to the driver, but they can also be to the train, such that it slows automatically in response to a situation ahead. This will require continuity in determining the exact location and speed of all trains at any given time, and continual communication between the central signalling system and the train’s cab signalling system. This implies requirements for significant redundancy and a very high level of reliability, given the volumes of traffic affected. Scalability will be a significant challenge as the complexity of the rail network increases with size.

8.6 Autonomous buses and personal rapid transit (PRT) pods differ in scale. The ethics of accident mitigation strategies are likely to delay the introduction of the already technically achievable autonomous buses for many years, although bus rapid transit systems using reserved track offer opportunities to demonstrate and develop the technologies. PRT has existed for many years with small vehicle typically capable of carrying between four and 10 people operating on reserved track (similar also to automated metro systems). More recently, a number of trials with PRT have been initiated in the UK and elsewhere offering opportunities such as automatic taxis in urban centres or last mile distribution from larger scale public transport modes. The technology essentially couples central planning, allocation and control systems with self-driving vehicles. The most significant – and politically, socially and ethically contentious – issue is removing the driver (the largest cost in most road based public transport).

8.7 Autonomous control of vehicles on non-dedicated roads is clearly the most dramatic change that might happen over the next 20 years. It could improve safety, efficiency and capacity and therefore would meet all three objectives. However, it is unlikely that autonomous vehicles will replace drivers for many years, so there will be a significant challenge of operating autonomous and non-autonomous vehicles together. The technology will, for example, need to deny access to kerbside space or off-street parking places to vehicles not entitled to use them – for example, in residential controlled parking zones – and where they are allowed, to prevent them from parking unless they have paid.

8.8 Collecting and analysing the learning and results of the myriad trials of self-driving vehicles that are underway across the UK and the world is a challenge, given the proprietary nature of parts of many of them, and also the rapid nature of technological developments. However, this activity is necessary in order for legislators to be able to frame appropriate policies and for the transport profession and other disciplines to understand the implications of this technology.

8.9 A key issue is the interaction between driverless vehicles and those with a driver, and indeed all other road-users. One option is to restrict self-driving vehicles to limited access roads: motorways in the UK. Platooning, which is already being piloted on a number of motorways in the UK, will increase the capacity of existing roads. This will probably lead to a change in how we use motorways as the likelihood is that outside lane would become a platooning lane. A redesign of many of the access and egress ramps for motorways may also be required, as many of these are too tight for autonomous vehicles (Tesla is struggling with this at the moment) or extra-long vehicles to use.

8.10 On general-purpose roads, the effect of autonomous road vehicles on other road-users and traffic rules and liability raises many potential problems, particularly if new users are attracted – that is, people who do not currently drive, such as children, disabled people or older people. On the other hand, there will be mobility benefits from enabling people who do not drive to travel. There are many concerns about the effects of autonomous vehicles, a number of which have both positive and adverse consequences, including:

• If travel becomes available to a wider range of people, there will be more vehicles on the roads, which may outweigh the benefit in terms of improved efficiency and lead to more congestion and greater parking demand

• If autonomous cars are more expensive, the benefits of their use will not be socially equitable

• Autonomous cars may take market share from public transport, particularly buses, leading to further decline in bus viability

• Autonomous cars may complement public transport by providing the first or last mile element, or where demand thins out

• Autonomous cars may be particularly difficult to operate in rural roads resulting in unequal opportunities compared with urban areas

• Autonomous freight vehicles may increase traffic congestion, and there will be considerable challenges when it comes to traffic management rules and parking controls

The social and economic effects of self-driving cars are also unclear. Such effects could range from the immediate, such as self-driving taxis having a dramatic effect on employment in the taxi trade, to the effect on employment land use.

8.11 A special note is required to deal with unmanned aerial vehicles or drones. There is a wide range of types, from toys through to military weapons systems, and there are significant concerns about the safety implications of their use near airfields. There are also concerns about privacy and noise annoyance. There are a number of demonstration projects for deliveries, although these are mainly concerned with deliveries to remote locations. While these might be valid applications, the economic case for their use, compared with road based delivery, in urban and semi-urban areas seems unlikely to overcome the concerns.

8.12 It is the view of the authors of this report, therefore, that the stated advantages in terms of the objectives of improving safety, efficiency and capacity must be robustly demonstrated, and the social and economic effects thoroughly examined, before Government should permit the use of autonomous transport vehicles beyond the demonstration phase. While the Government and the manufacturers might wish to see the UK take a lead in this field, there is a significant risk that such developments might have adverse consequences that will be unacceptable to society. It is therefore better to use resources to research and prove rather than roll out the technology quickly.

9. Security and resilience

9.1 In this section we note some concerns about the security and resilience of some of the technologies. First is the reliance on Google and other large (multinational) suppliers. For example, in many jurisdictions across the world, bespoke online journey planners have been replaced by use of Google Transit (a data exchange protocol that is applied universally together with excellent journey planning algorithms) the results from which are freely available to any user of Google Maps (including embedded applications). This obviously suits Google’s current business models, but what happens when it does not, or when Google introduces/increases charges either to data suppliers or to end-users?

9.2 Particularly, but not exclusively, in rural areas, the level of access to mobile phone and internet signals as required by the majority of transport applications is poor, so that some of the most obvious (and deserving?) user groups effectively have sporadic or zero access. Similarly, landline internet is often very slow compared to the expectations of most developers of modern transport information and control systems. Government and BT claim to be taking steps to overcome such problems, but these claims have been reiterated several times in the past decade.

9.3 Other security and resilience issues include the reliability of power supplies, climate change and weather resilience and disruption to communications by accident or deliberate action.

9.4 One specific example of how technology can improve security relates to aviation. Aviation security includes a number of processes designed to protect aircraft that undoubtedly affect passengers’ journeys, such as the need to inspect cabin baggage. Continual improvements are being made to the ability of the technology to identify risks, and to do it in a way that reduces queues and waiting times. While this is an international challenge requiring worldwide action, the Department for Transport is leading a programme of Future Aviation Security Solutions which aims to enable the best technology to be available. Aviation presents a particular security risk, but other forms of transport have particular security risks which technology should be expected to mitigate, efficiently and effectively.

10. Conclusions and recommendations

10.1 The objective of the study was to review potential technology in transport that might be available by 2035 in relation to quality of life and value for money (public and private) in order to identify how technology can address some of the major transport policy questions, to advise on priorities for research and development, and to advise policy makers how to incorporate technological trends in decision making. We have considered a range of technological advances that we believe may be available by 2035, but it is impossible to say which of these will succeed and which will fail and, indeed, there may be other technologies that we have no idea about at present. Our conclusions therefore seek only to consider the implications, in terms of quality of life, value for money and research needs for those technological advances we are aware of.

10.2 There have been large strides in the ability to communicate and this will undoubtedly continue, in terms of the range, quantity and quality of data. There are many applications for this ability to communicate, including automatic data transfer to, from and between vehicles and infrastructure, and also to individual users. We see this as having many benefits in terms of better utilisation of capacity, better choices by users, more use of shared services and better targeted marketing of services. There are some risks that certain groups may not be well linked, but the near universal spread of mobile communications technology covers all social classes and, except in very remote areas, most of the country. It is right that urban areas, where the need for better use of capacity is greatest, should also have the highest connectivity.

10.3 MaaS is a combination of a number of communications and information technologies that give the traveller or shipper the opportunity to plan and experience the whole journey, and we expect this will become the norm by 2035, giving a real improvement in journey experience.

10.4 One of the most expanded uses of new communications technology is for social media that is being adopted by many sections of society. Some transport providers have embraced social media, but as this is a trend more driven by (virtual) communities than by the technology, it is likely that the transport providers will be in response mode, rather than being proactive in developing new ideas. There are opportunities for the use of social media on research, and it is recommended that they are developed for groups that are not amenable to more traditional research methods.

10.5 The availability of open data and co-operative systems is a big opportunity for transport providers and the UK does seem to have a lead in this area, in particular through TfL. Although care must be taken to ensure that the required data manipulation does not degrade the quality of the data, there is an opportunity for real-time management of capacity to match demand. We note the particular developments in MAS and ABM, which use big data to provide real-time control or the ability to plan for the future.

10.6 There will be big changes in traction, emissions and energy and so there must be if the UK, and indeed the world, is to avoid dangerous climate change and local adverse effects. There are some positive signs that Government and industry recognises and is supporting and developing technology appropriate for each mode. Electrification of the railways is continuing and electric road vehicle technology and the infrastructure to support it is advancing. There remains a challenge with larger passenger and freight road vehicles, in particular in urban areas where the current diesel-powered fleet is largely responsible for local air quality concerns, and it is therefore recommended that this is an area on which Government policy and support should be focused. There is no real alternative to fossil fuel for aviation, so policy should support and enhance international agreements on increased efficiency and offsetting. The biggest challenge for electrification is outside of the transport sector, and is the decarbonisation of electricity generation, either through reducing the carbon used in generation such as with hydro, wind, tidal, solar or nuclear power, or through carbon capture and storage. The transport sector should support such moves and, indeed, encourage them by agreeing to buy their electricity from zero-carbon or low-carbon suppliers. The societal effects of electrification will be almost all positive, in particular in terms of health and the avoidance of the effects of dangerous climate change.

10.7 There is a significant effect on public finances from increasing electrification that relates to the reduction of revenue from fuel duty and other taxes on fossil fuel. The Treasury is no doubt already aware of this, and it is recommended that CILT’s long-standing support for road pricing (see, for example, the report of the CILT working group on UK freight planning to 2035) should be promoted as the revenue-neutral way of replacing fuel duty, which will also send economic signals to users and result in better use of capacity through behavioural change – that is, choosing to travel to avoid congestion.

10.8 The effects of advances in autonomous control in transport are likely to be mixed. For public transport, ranging from aircraft through trains to buses, there are big opportunities to make better use of infrastructure capacity, and these should be supported. The area of concern relates to road transport. There could be safety benefits from autonomous control, given that many accidents are caused by the driver, although the safety of automation has yet to be proved, particularly on roads also used by pedestrians, cyclists and others. There may also be capacity advantages, if automatic control enables vehicles to travel closer together, particularly on limited access roads or with vehicles with similar performance characteristics – for example, truck platooning. However, there may be adverse consequences in terms of increasing the number of vehicles seeking access to limited capacity, and the adverse effect on public transport if non-drivers are attracted to automatic vehicles. It is therefore recommended that Government support should be focused on the implications of such technology, rather than on the technology itself. Government should develop a framework within which autonomous road vehicle technology should be allowed to operate where it is beneficial to society, rather than be driven by the technologies that are being promoted.

10.9 Our message to policy makers is therefore to incorporate uncertainty in decision making, and to adopt options which are robust in a range of scenarios. The major transport policy questions, such as congestion, capacity, resilience, inequality and environmental impact can all be addressed in part by technology. We believe there is scope for improved management and better use of limited capacities through communications technologies and in reduced environmental impacts through the wider use of electric power.

10.10 Our overall conclusion is therefore that it is not possible to predict which technologies will be in common use by 2035, but there are some clear opportunities to use the advances to achieve the objectives of improving safety and increasing capacity in a socially equitable way with economic benefits. Much of this will be led by suppliers, but where Government intervention is required, we recommend that it should be focused on reducing the environmental impact of transport and on understanding the effects of autonomous vehicle control.

Appendix 1

Members who contributed to this report

• John Austin

• Tony Bolden

• Alan Braithwaite

• Martin Brennan

• John Carr

• Matthew Clark

• Jim Coates

• Jolyon Drury

• Paul Le Blond

• Daniel Parker-Klein

• David Quarmby

• Nick Richardson

• Paul Wilkes

• Tom Worsley

For further information about Vision 2035 please contact:

The Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (UK)

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E: policy@ciltuk.org.uk