Executive summary
Vision 2035: Transport, Logistics and the Economy
The economic, social and environmental effects of aviation are likely to be optimised (in terms of balancing the adverse effects with the benefits) in a scenario in which the UK is prospering in line with the rest of the world.
The UK aviation industry has been at the forefront of many developments, but as we prevaricate over long-term strategy, we may fall behind as other countries overtake.
Airlines have fundamentally shorter term business horizons compared with airports, so future changes are more likely in the former. New airport runway capacity is only likely in a prospering scenario.
Aviation technology still has the potential for improvement, although much of this could be in the unseen areas of electronics, materials and communications. Technology advances in airspace will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and CILT is confident that airspace management will not constrain air travel in 2035.
Sustainability improvements, in line with Government targets, can be achieved with the prospering scenarios, but there could be a circular trend of lack of growth limiting investment in sustainability that in turn limits growth.
UK airport strategy is at a critical point, with the Airports Commission’s recommendations and the Government’s decisions not due until 2015. There is plenty of spare runway capacity outside south-east England, and some within, where airports have opportunities to attract more activity in the short and medium term.
Surface access improvements are a vital element of the potential for airport growth, with particular airports being able to demonstrate significant benefits from improvements. HS2 seems likely to go ahead in all the scenarios and will have a limited impact on domestic aviation, but may widen the catchment areas of airports directly served.
This report of the future of aviation has been prepared as part of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport’s Vision 2035 and sits alongside other reports on related subjects.
CILT’s vision for aviation in 2035 is that growth will continue and will enable technological and environmental improvements to be achieved; but unless global stability and prosperity is continuous, this growth will be moderated. Policy for the longer term should therefore plan for modest growth under environmental and delivery constraints.
