A new report has challenged UK fleet insurers to publish the data behind the two-year experience rule that keeps many newly qualified HGV drivers out of work.
The report, ‘Show the Data’ by Marc Fels of Fueler Consulting, asks: where is the published data that proves that the decision to exclude newly qualified HGV drivers from work on risk grounds is justified?
One of the report’s central claims is that, while the UK did strongly invest in training new drivers after the 2021 shortage, the employment barrier remains untouched. An evaluation by the Department for Transport (DfT) and the University of the West England in Bristol UWE) found that, of the 33 measures introduced after the shortage, none directly addressed insurance.
The report argues that the dilemma is not just whether new drivers have passed their test, but whether operators can affordably employ them once they have done so. Newly qualified drivers are often blocked by a combination of restrictions and requirements, and even when a policy technically allows a new driver, operators may still avoid taking the risk - as one claim could affect the whole fleet’s premium. Fels argues that this has created a structural gap between qualification and employability.
‘Show the Data’ does not claim that newly qualified HGV drivers carry no additional risk but instead argues that the public evidence does not currently prove that a fixed two-year rule is the correct way to neutralise that risk. SambaSafety’s ‘2025 UK Driver Risk Report’ was cited, which found that the crash risk among commercial drivers peaked at months 24 to 36 in the role. Fels’ report says that this flags a vital contradiction, with the two-year restriction lifting at the point when this wider commercial-driver dataset suggests risk is highest.
The report says questions have been submitted to Admiral Group, Aviva, Allianz UK, Direct Commercial Insurance and RHA Insurance Services to ask whether they will provide the actuarial basis for the two-year threshold, including claims frequency, severity and cost data for newly qualified drivers compared with experienced drivers in their commercial fleet books.
The report warns that the issue could become more urgent if the labour market tightens again, with Q3 2026 due to be the first summer peak with no HGV Skills Bootcamp pipeline entering the market. The report also links the issue to the Government’s forthcoming NEET strategy, arguing that young people directed towards logistics may face the same insurance barrier once they qualify.