Fuel costs are expected to push European road freight rates higher in Q2, according to the latest European Road Freight Rate Benchmark from IRU, Upply and Transport Intelligence.
The Q1 2026 benchmark shows a widening gap between contract and spot markets, pointing to a market where contracted capacity is being repriced upwards, while short-term freight demand has dropped after the seasonal peak.
However, the prospect for Q2 is looking to be shaped less by freight volumes and more by operating costs. The benchmark says that fuel will be the dominant driver of rate changes in the coming months, with operators unable to absorb the scale of diesel increases without passing them through to customers. According to the report, EU average diesel prices rose from €1.56 per litre at the end of Q4 to €1.96 per litre at the end of Q1, an increase of 26%. This price increase has drained much of operators’ cash reserves, especially where fuel-indexation mechanisms are absent or too slow to reflect rapid market changes.
Cost pressure is building at the same time, with input-cost inflation reaching its highest level since October 2022, factory-gate prices rising at their fastest pace in more than three years, and business confidence weakening amid the tensions in the Middle East. The benchmark warns that rising costs and weaker confidence have historically preceded a slowdown in orders one or two quarters later, making Q2 a likely inflection point.
Demand for freight is also declining, with road trade volumes between major EU economies falling in Q1 compared with Q4, and goods exchanged by road were down 8% year on year. The report notes that Q1 is usually the weakest quarter by tonnage, but the broader volume picture remains exposed to inflation, energy prices and weaker consumer spending.
The benchmark also highlights other supply-side pressures, such as rising tolls and decreasing staff levels. Initial results from IRU’s annual driver-shortage survey show that 12.1% of driver positions weren’t filled in the EU in 2025, with shortages most felt in the eastern countries. Tolls across Europe have been increased as high as 33% - with Poland recording the highest rises.