The escalation of military conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran has triggered a severe global supply chain crisis, with the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupting 20% of the world’s seaborne oil and trapping nearly 170 container ships. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has reportedly issued radio warnings blocking vessel passage, creating immediate paralysis across maritime trade.
Analysis from Pole Star Global shows vessel traffic in the Persian Gulf surged 162% during the February 28 strikes, followed by a sharp contraction. Iranian-flagged vessel activity fell 95.6% within hours. The International Maritime Organization condemned attacks on civilian shipping and urged maximum caution.
Major carriers have suspended transits. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd halted Hormuz crossings, rerouting vessels around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 3,500 nautical miles and roughly $1 million in fuel costs per voyage. MSC directed ships to safe shelter areas. At Jebel Ali Port, operations were briefly suspended after debris caused a fire, leaving an estimated 450,000 TEU stranded inside the Gulf.
Air cargo capacity has fallen 18% week-on-week. Emirates SkyCargo, FedEx and Qatar Airways have suspended or restricted regional operations, while multiple Middle East routes remain closed.
Energy infrastructure has also been hit. Saudi Aramco shut its Ras Tanura refinery after drone attacks, escalating fears of prolonged oil price spikes and inflation.
Healthcare, technology, agriculture and construction sectors are bracing for knock-on effects, from pharmaceutical shortages to delayed semiconductor and fertiliser shipments. As tensions persist, businesses worldwide are activating contingency plans amid expectations that disruption could last weeks or months rather than days.