Contract rates in the European road freight sector have continued to rise in the first quarter of 2026, whilst spot prices have softened, highlighting a growing separation between the two markets.
A recent European road freight rates report by the World Road Transport Organisation (IRU), Upply, and Transport Intelligence, shows that contract rates reached 140.1 index points in Q1 of this year, up 3.2 points quarter on quarter and 8.9 points year on year. In contrast, spot rates fell to 132.3, declining by 2.8 points compared with the previous quarter and reduced by 2.0 points year on year.
The decline in spot rates reflects typical seasonal trends at the start of the year, with post-peak demand easing and European consumers remaining wary amid ongoing cost pressures. However, analysts warn that this trend is unlikely to continue as rising fuel costs are felt across the sector.
Fuel prices have become a key influencer of market conditions. EU diesel prices rose from an average of €1.56 (£1.36) per litre at the end of Q4 in 2025 to €1.96 (£1.70) per litre by the end of Q1 in 2026. This 26% increase was driven by geopolitical disruption and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which pushed oil prices above $100 (£86.92) per barrel.
National responses to these rising fuel prices have varied across the EU, with some countries introducing price caps, tax reductions or VAT cuts to alleviate the impact. These uncoordinated measures, however, have led to price discrepancies of up to €1 (87p) per litre between member states, adding additional pressures to supply chains and encouraging.
Diesel prices have continued to rise in Q2, with the EU average for April reported to be 10% higher than in March. Concerns are also emerging over diesel availability, as refineries could shift production towards jet fuel amid shortages in the aviation sector.
Alongside fuel concerns, structural pressures persist. According to preliminary IRU data, new truck registrations fell by 6% in 2025, while 12.1% of driver positions remained unfilled across the EU.
Despite weaker spot demand, underlying industrial activity has shown signs of recovery. The Eurozone Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index reached 51.6 in March - its strongest level since June 2022 - signifying expansion, with output at a seven-month high and new orders stabilising. This has supported continued growth in contract rates, which are impacted by industrial production.
With fuel costs expected to remain elevated, the report concludes that upward pressure on both contract and spot rates is likely to persist throughout the first half of 2026, and potentially longer, regardless of demand conditions.